Price trend

According to the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market experienced a decline followed by a rise during this period, with an overall downward trend. From November 3rd to November 10th, 2025, 1,3-butadiene prices decreased from 7,133.33 RMB/ton to 6,866.67 RMB/ton, a drop of 3.74%. The domestic 1,3-butadiene market remained weak throughout this period. As prices continued to fall, some downstream buyers replenished their inventories, leading to an improvement in the spot market trading atmosphere and a slight recovery in spot prices. However, due to persistently weak downstream demand and a bearish supply, the 1,3-butadiene market remained weak overall under the combined influence of these two negative factors.

Analysis review

Cost side: According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of November 7th, the settlement price of the December contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $59.75 per barrel. The settlement price of the January contract for Brent crude oil futures was $63.63 per barrel. During this pricing cycle, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the cycle, trade negotiations between China and the US boosted market risk appetite, and tensions in South America initially supported the rise in crude oil prices. However, later, with OPEC+ increasing production again, the market remained concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply. Regional tensions eased somewhat, and weakening US demand, coupled with US tariffs dragging down global economic and demand expectations, led to a decline in international oil prices.

Supply side: Sinopec's sales companies were maintaining a listed price of RMB 6,900/ton for 1,3-butadiene.

Shenghong Refining & Chemical's 200,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene unit is operating normally, with a price reduction of RMB 100/ton to RMB 6,900/ton.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene unit is operating normally, with 196 tons sold externally at a base price of RMB 7,050/ton.

Satellite Chemical's Lianyungang Petrochemical's 90,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene unit is operating normally, with a price reduction of RMB 200/ton to RMB 6,800/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the BR market in Northwest China was consolidating at a low level. BR futures prices are fluctuating weakly, and traders are making slight adjustments to their offers. As of November 10th, mainstream BR prices in Sichuan, Dushanzi, and Lande are quoted at 10,300-10,600 RMB/ton.

Market Forecast:

With some domestic plants restarting in October, the overall supply side was relatively loose, and spot market prices were generally weak. This had attracted some downstream buyers to actively replenish their inventories, but overall demand remains primarily driven by immediate needs. Market expectations remained weak overall, and with weak purchasing intentions, the spot market was operating weakly. Lacking positive factors to boost the market, and influenced by weak demand, the 1,3-butadiene market is expected to fluctuate and weaken in the short term. The focus will be on downstream purchasing demand.

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