Expana released a report on Monday stating that rapeseed crops in major EU producing countries are growing well. The company projects that the EU rapeseed planting area will reach 6.46 million hectares in 2026/27, a 7% year-on-year increase and 11% higher than the five-year average, marking the highest planting area in 16 years.

The projected 6.46 million hectares of rapeseed planting area in the EU, a 7% year-on-year increase and a 16-year high, will likely lead to an oversupply in the spot market, putting downward pressure on prices—a significant bearish factor.

Increased rapeseed supply, as a raw material, will reduce rapeseed meal production costs and increase supply. Combined with rapeseed meal futures data from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, such as the 2601 contract settlement price of 2497 RMB/ton, an increase of 38 RMB, reflecting a short-term rise, but the expected increased supply in 2026/27 will suppress future futures prices—a significant bearish factor.

Increased rapeseed supply will lower raw material costs, leading to an expected increase in rapeseed oil spot market supply. With demand remaining unchanged, prices face downward pressure—a significant bearish factor. Increased supply of rapeseed as a substitute may reduce demand for soybeans, intensifying competition in the soybean spot market and putting downward pressure on prices—a significant negative factor.

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