Price trend:

According to data from SunSirs, seamless tube prices fell slightly in October. At the beginning of the month, the price of 20#, 108*4.5 seamless tube was 4,100 RMB/ton, which fell to 4,080 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.49% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%.

Analysis review

Regarding raw materials: In October, the price of Shandong hot rolled billet, the major raw material for seamless tubes, decreased by 40-50 RMB/ton. The weakness in raw material prices reduced the cost support for seamless tubes, which also became a driving factor for the decline in finished tube prices.

On the supply side: Some tube mills had proactively suspended or reduced production due to sluggish order intake and unprofitable margins. In October, the weekly output of seamless tube mills was 364,200 tons, a decrease from the previous month; capacity utilization also decreased by 4.31% month-on-month. In October, mill inventory was 747,800 tons, a slight decrease of only 2,200 tons month-on-month, indicating a slow inventory digestion rate and even a period of inventory accumulation, suggesting continued tight supply pressure.

On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" had not materialized. Market trading activity was generally weak, with traders primarily focused on clearing inventory and recovering funds. Downstream end-users continued their just-in-time purchasing strategy, showing little acceptance of high-priced resources. The overall market exhibited a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand."

On the export front: Exports were a major highlight of the market in September. seamless tube exports reached 563,400 tons in August, a significant increase of 21.90% month-on-month.

Market Forecast:

In conclusion, as northern China entered winter first, demand in the southern market may also shrink, and a seasonal decrease in demand is highly probable. Unless there is a large-scale, proactive reduction in production on the supply side, the market will continue to face a strong supply and weake demand imbalance. The average price of seamless tubes is expected to decline somewhat in the fourth quarter.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.