The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture announced on Friday that as of October 23, Ukraine had harvested 8.4 million hectares of grain (including legumes), equivalent to 73% of the planned harvest area of ​​11.475 million hectares; the harvest yielded 37.56 million tons, with an average yield of 4.47 tons per hectare.

Ukraine is the world's second-largest corn exporter. This harvest data shows that 73% of the 8.4 million hectares of grain has been harvested, with a yield of 37.56 million tons and a yield of 4.47 tons per hectare, both exceeding expectations. Increased supply will directly depress corn spot prices. Combining the corn futures contracts 2601 (closing price 2111 RMB/ton, change -6) and 2603 (closing price 2141 RMB/ton, change -6), increased open interest indicates intensified short-selling pressure, and futures prices face downside risks. The significant negative factor stems from oversupply suppressing the market.

Ukraine's soybean production accounts for a significant share of global production. Harvested area and yield data indicate increased supply, with yield rising to 4.47 tons/hectare, reinforcing market expectations of ample supply and weighing on soybean spot prices. Soybean meal, a major derivative, saw its futures contract 2601 (closing price 2994 RMB/ton, up +7) rise slightly, but decreased open interest suggests weak demand, and the futures market may follow suit. A significant bearish factor is the expected increase in global soybean inventories.

Ukraine is a major rapeseed producer, and grain harvest data covers rapeseed-related crops. Harvesting progress reached 73% with a yield of 37.56 million tons, indicating ample overall oilseed supply, which may depress rapeseed spot prices. Although there is no direct futures data, increased supply puts pressure on crushing margins, affecting downstream products. Generally, a significant bearish factor is the seasonal supply peak suppressing price rebounds.

As a corn derivative, increased Ukrainian corn supply (37.56 million tons) will reduce raw material costs and improve starch production profits, but expectations of oversupply may lead to a decline in starch spot prices. Corn futures contracts, such as the 2601 contract (settlement price 2113 RMB/ton), showed a downward trend, which was transmitted to the starch market. A major negative factor was weakening cost support and potential inventory accumulation.

Rapeseed meal originates from rapeseed. Harvest data for Ukrainian oilseed crops (including soybeans) indicates increased raw material supply, which may increase rapeseed meal production and depress spot prices. While there is no direct futures data, ample soybean and rapeseed supplies will indirectly suppress demand for meal. Generally, a major negative factor is supply-side pressure limiting price upside.

The rapid progress of the Ukrainian oilseed harvest and production data highlighting ample supply may increase rapeseed oil production, putting pressure on spot prices. Although there is no futures data, the overall edible oil market is affected by increased supply. Generally, a major negative factor is rising inventory expectations and insufficient support from the consumption side.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.