The market for butadiene rubber in October was weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of October 30th, the market price of BR in East China was 11,190 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.11% from 11,670 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

Since October, some units have restarted and domestic butadiene production has rebounded. In addition, international crude oil has fluctuated and fallen, resulting in a significant decrease in raw material butadiene prices and a significant shift in the cost center of BR; In addition, the start of production of BR in October first increased and then decreased, and the pressure on the supply side gradually eased; Downstream tire production has steadily increased slightly, mainly supporting the demand for BR. Under the comprehensive influence, the price of BR weakened and decreased in October. As of October 30th, the mainstream prices in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were reported at 11,050-11,300 RMB/ton.

The price of butadiene weakened significantly in October, dragging down the market for BR on the cost side. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of October 30th, the price of butadiene was 7,516 RMB/ton, a decrease of 15.42% from 8,886 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

In mid to late October, domestic companies such as Qilu Petrochemical, Sichuan Petrochemical, Yangtze Petrochemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical successively shut down their Shunding units for maintenance, resulting in a significant decrease in Shunding rubber production; In addition, there are maintenance plans for the Shunding unit of Maoming Petrochemical and Zhenhua New Materials in November.

Demand side: In October, there was a slight increase in downstream semi steel tire production, which provided strong support for the demand in the BR market. As of October 24th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has started at around 74%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly increased to around 66%.

From a fundamental perspective, analysts from SunSirs believe that the abundant supply of raw material butadiene is mainly due to weak market conditions, with slight fluctuations in downstream tire production. In November, some Shunding units still have plans to shut down for maintenance. Overall, it is expected that Shunding rubber will experience weak fluctuations in the later period.

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