Price trend

On October 30th, domestic light rare earth market prices rose. Praseodymium-neodymium alloy prices increased by 32,500 RMB/ton to 657,500 RMB/ton, praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices increased by 20,000 RMB/ton to 537,500 RMB/ton, neodymium oxide prices increased by 5,000 RMB/ton to 582,500 RMB/ton, neodymium metal prices increased by 10,000 RMB/ton to 690,000 RMB/ton, praseodymium metal prices increased by 20,000 RMB/ton to 725,000 RMB/ton, and praseodymium oxide prices remained at 550,000 RMB/ton. Despite the rising domestic light rare earth prices, sales in the market were generally weak.

Analysis review

Metal Neodymium

The price of neodymium metal rose by 10,000 RMB/ton to 690,000 RMB/ton, an increase of about 1.5%, reflecting tighter supply or a recovery in demand, which supported spot prices. Although sales were average, the clear price increase signal is beneficial to the short-term spot market.

Metal Praseodymium

The price of praseodymium metal rose by 20,000 RMB/ton to 725,000 RMB/ton, an increase of approximately 2.8%, indicating that upstream costs or increased purchasing activity may be driving prices higher. This is beneficial to the short-term upward trend of spot prices, although trading volume did not increase significantly.

Praseodymium-neodymium alloy

The price of praseodymium-neodymium metal surged by 32,500 RMB/ton to 657,500 RMB/ton, a 5.2% increase, making it the commodity with the largest price increase, indicating a tight supply and demand situation for core light rare earth elements. This significant positive impact on spot prices may drive bullish sentiment across the industry chain.

Neodymium oxide

Neodymium oxide prices rose slightly by 5,000 RMB/ton to 582,500 RMB/ton, an increase of approximately 0.9%, reflecting a moderate cost transmission. This was neutral to slightly positive for the spot market, but the increase was relatively limited, and attention needs to be paid to subsequent demand developments.

Praseodymium oxide

Praseodymium oxide prices remained stable at 550,000 RMB/ton, with no mention of changes. Given the overall upward trend in the market, a potential price increase is anticipated. This was neutral to slightly bullish for the spot market, but more data is needed to confirm actual supply and demand changes.

Praseodymium-neodymium oxide

The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide rose by 20,000 RMB/ton to 537,500 RMB/ton, an increase of approximately 3.9%. As a key raw material, the significant price increase was beneficial to the cost support of downstream spot markets. This reflects the strong willingness of smelters to maintain prices, indicating a short-term bullish outlook.

Dysprosium oxide

Dysprosium oxide may be indirectly boosted by the general rise in prices of light rare earth elements. Neutral to slightly bullish for the spot market.

Metal Dysprosium

Amid the overall upward trend in light rare earth prices, dysprosium, as a related commodity, may be driven by market sentiment. This is neutral to slightly positive for spot prices.

Dy-Fe Alloy

The general rise in rare earth prices may increase the production cost of dysprosium-iron alloys. This is neutral to slightly positive for the spot market; actual transaction volume needs to be observed.

In addition, data released by the General Administration of Customs shows that China's exports of rare earth and its products reached 10,538 tons in September, up 7.6% year-on-year; and the cumulative exports of rare earth and its products for the year reached 95,875 tons, up 3.1% year-on-year.