The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in October 2025 would reach 7 million tons, lower than the 7.34 million tons forecast a week earlier, but still up 58.0% from 4.43 million tons in October last year, and slightly higher than 6.97 million tons in September this year.

The 58% year-on-year increase in Brazilian soybean exports to 7 million tons indicates strong demand supporting spot prices. However, the slightly lower-than-expected 7.34 million tons will put slight pressure on short-term prices. The overall trend is bullish, and spot prices are expected to rise moderately.

Increased soybean exports may reduce domestic crushing volume, tightening soybean meal supply and supporting spot prices. Combined with soybean meal futures data (e.g., the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange 2601 contract was 2969 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan, with a change in open interest of -22018), the market performance is bullish, and futures prices are expected to rise.

Increased soybean exports may lead to a reduction in soybean oil raw material supply, supporting higher spot prices. Strong year-on-year demand is a boon to the overall market.

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