Price trend:

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market experienced a volatile downward trend during this cycle. From October 20 to October 27, 2025, the price of 1,3-butadiene decreased from 8,440 RMB/ton to 8,233.33 RMB/ton, a 2.45% drop. The domestic 1,3-butadiene market remained generally weak during this period. The downstream synthetic rubber market showed low enthusiasm for market entry, and purchasing interest in raw material 1,3-butadiene was muted. Actual market transaction performance was poor, and lack of demand support contributed to the overall weakness of the 1,3-butadiene market during this cycle.

Analysis review

Cost Side:

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of the 24th, the December settlement price of US WTI crude oil futures was $61.50 per barrel, and the December settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $65.94 per barrel. Crude oil prices initially fell and then rose in this cycle. At the beginning of the cycle, OPEC+ had already initiated a new round of production increases of 1.65 million barrels per day, but the market remained concerned about the risk of long-term oversupply. The easing of the Israeli-Palestinian tensions, coupled with weakening US demand and the impact of US tariffs on global economic and demand expectations, led to a sharp decline in international oil prices. However, as European and American sanctions on some oil-producing countries continued, and concerns about the negative pressure from US tariffs and trade disputes eased, the crude oil market rose.

On the supply side:

Sinopec's 1,3-butadiene sales companies were listing a price of 8,400 RMB/ton.

Shenghong Refining and Chemical's 200,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene unit was operating normally, with a price increase of 50 RMB/ton to 8,350 RMB/ton.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 ton/year 1,3-butadiene plant was operating normally, with 196 tons exported at a price of 8,400 RMB/ton.

Satellite Chemical Lianyungang Petrochemical's 90,000 ton/year 1,3-butadiene plant was operating normally, at a price of 8,400 RMB/ton.

Demand Side:

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the market for BR in Northwest China had seen a slight increase. BR futures prices recently fluctuated within a narrow range, with low downstream inquiries. While traders had slightly raised their offers by around 50 RMB/ton, actual market transactions were weak, with downstream inquiries primarily focusing on small orders. As of October 24th, the mainstream prices for BR in Sichuan, Dushanzi, and Lande were between 11,150 and 11,300 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

The recent restart of some domestic plants led to a generally loose supply situation. While the downstream synthetic rubber market had seen a slight strengthening, actual downstream demand had not yet significantly increased, and overall market expectations remained weak. With demand driven by just-in-time purchases, the spot market was generally weak. Lacking favorable factors to boost the market. Under the influence of weak demand, the butadiene market is expected to fluctuate and weaken in the short term, with a focus on downstream purchasing demand.

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