Price trend:

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the toluene market experienced a downward trend from October 20 to 27. The benchmark price for toluene was 5,200 RMB/ton on October 20, and 5,150 RMB/ton on October 27, a decrease of 0.96%. The domestic toluene market experienced a volatile downward trend during this period. Ex-factory prices at major refineries in Shandong Province decreased slightly, while demand in the downstream chemical and oil blending industries remained relatively stable, with purchases focused on just-in-time needs. Prices in East and South China markets declined slightly, with downstream market participation remaining subdued. Overall, the toluene market remained stable but weak this cycle.

Analysis review

Cost Side:

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of the 24th, the December settlement price of US WTI crude oil futures was $61.50 per barrel, and the December settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $65.94 per barrel. Crude oil prices initially fell and then rose in this cycle. At the beginning of the cycle, OPEC+ had already initiated a new round of production increases of 1.65 million barrels per day, but the market remained concerned about the risk of long-term oversupply. The easing of the Israeli-Palestinian tension, coupled with weakening US demand and the impact of US tariffs on global economic and demand expectations, led to a sharp decline in international oil prices. However, as European and American sanctions on some oil-producing countries continued, and concerns about the negative pressure from US tariffs and trade disputes eased, the crude oil market rose.

Supply:

Sinopec's toluene operations were operating normally, with stable production and production primarily for self-use. Production and sales remained stable. As of October 27th, the East China unit quoted 5,150 RMB/ton, the North China unit 4,950 RMB/ton, the South China unit 5,400-5,500 RMB/ton, and the Central China unit 5,150 RMB/ton.

Demand Side:

On October 27th, Sinopec Sales Company reported a temporary stabilization of paraxylene prices at 6,650 RMB/ton. This price applied to all regions in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Plants at Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical were operating stably, and sales were normal. As of October 24th, the closing price of paraxylene in the Asian market was $789-791/ton FOB Korea and $814-816/ton CFR China.

Market Forecast:

The crude oil market was volatile recently, providing limited market guidance. From a supply and demand perspective, recent market fluctuations were limited, with supply remaining stable. Major refineries slightly lowered their ex-factory prices over the weekend, creating a subdued market environment. Demand remained focused on rigid demand, with inventory replenishment primarily driven by demand. Overall, toluene news is bearish, and the market is expected to remain stable but weaker in the short term.

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