Price trend
Stronger oil prices were boosting commodity sentiment, while downstream demand remained stable during the traditional peak season, leading to a strengthening of PTA prices. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of October 23rd, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,467 RMB/ton, up 1.16% from the previous trading day.
Analysis review
A decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, coupled with easing market concerns about trade disputes, led to an increase in international oil prices. On October 22, the December settlement price of the U.S. WTI crude oil futures contract was $58.50 per barrel, and the December settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract was $62.59 per barrel.
On the PTA supply side, Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million tonne plant reduced its capacity to 80% on October 17th, while Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million tonne plant resumed production on October 14th, bringing the industry's overall operating rate to around 75%. Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million tonne plant and Ineos' 1.1 million tonne plant were scheduled for maintenance in October, while Dushan Energy's new 3 million tonne plant was scheduled to start production next week. We will closely monitor their actual commissioning.
On the demand side, polyester production capacity fluctuated, but overall changes were minimal. While terminal weaving orders have recently improved with the cooler weather, sentiment has temporarily improved, but there was significant product differentiation, and overall demand was lower than in previous years. Seasonal strength was limited, and peak season quality was insufficient. Most manufacturers were focused on consuming pre-stocked raw materials, maintaining rigid demand for raw materials.
Market Forecast:
Analysts at SunSirs believe that PTA price trends were once again driven by macroeconomic factors and commodity sentiment, with stronger crude oil prices providing strong cost support. Demand was also recovering structurally as the weather cools, leading to improved orders for autumn and winter. Therefore, the PTA market is expected to continue to rebound in the short term.
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