The Brazilian National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC) stated that Brazil's soybean exports are estimated at 7.34 million tons in October 2025, up from the 7.31 million tons forecast a week ago, a 65.7% increase from 4.43 million tons in October last year, and higher than 6.97 million tons in September this year.

The article reports that Brazil's soybean exports are estimated to be 7.34 million tons in October 2025, higher than the 7.31 million tons forecast a week ago, higher than the 4.43 million tons in October last year (a 65.7% increase), and higher than 6.97 million tons in September this year. This indicates ample Brazilian soybean supplies and increased global market supply, putting downward pressure on spot prices. The export growth may be due to increased production, but the risk of oversupply in the short term is increasing, putting downward pressure on prices.

The increase in Brazilian soybean exports may reduce the domestic soybean crushing feedstock, limiting soybean oil production and tightening supply. Against the backdrop of stable or growing demand, spot prices are expected to find support and rise. The incident in the article highlights the risk of raw material shortages, which is positive for the soybean oil spot market.

Similar to soybean oil, increased Brazilian soybean exports could reduce domestic crushing feedstock, reducing soybean meal supply and pushing up spot prices. Combined with futures prices, the main soybean meal contract (e.g., the 2601 contract) closed at 2,938 RMB/ton (a daily increase of 44 yuan), indicating recent strength. This export growth reinforces expectations of reduced supply, supporting the upward trend in futures prices.

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