Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity analysis system, caustic soda prices remained stable last week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 848 RMB/ton, down 7.12% year-on-year.

On October 16th, the SunSirs Chlor-Alkali Index was 785 points, unchanged from the previous day. This represents a 63.11% decrease from the intra-cyclical high of 2128 points (October 24, 2021), and a 10.25% increase from the intra-cyclical low of 712 points on January 5, 2016. (Note: The intra-cyclical period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present.)

Analysis review

According to the SunSirs commodity analysis system, caustic soda prices remained stable over the weekend. In Shandong, the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda Qs around 760-890 RMB/ton. In Jiangsu, prices were stable, with prices ranging from 890-1000 RMB/ton. In Inner Mongolia, prices were consolidating, with prices around 2,700-2,800 RMB/ton (Equivalent to 100). In Shandong, inventory pressure was minimal, with increased maintenance reducing supply, and some companies are expected to undergo maintenance next week. While downstream alumina producers have shown recent purchasing interest, dealers remained pessimistic. Overall, a weaker trend is expected, with caustic soda purchases primarily based on demand.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the price of caustic soda was temporarily stable in the recent times. Domestic downstream companies had been purchasing on demand recently, and caustic soda companies were not under much inventory pressure. Based on the supply and demand game, it is expected that caustic soda will maintain a consolidation trend in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

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