According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper has recently shown an upward trend after stabilizing for a period of time. On October 17, 2025, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,816 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.88% compared to the average price on October 1.

In terms of upstream raw materials: After the National Day holiday, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang has continued to rise, and the price of waste paper in many domestic paper mills has also been increasing. On October 17, 2025, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang was 1,773 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.96% compared to the average price on October 1. After the National Day holiday, paper mills that were shut down for maintenance gradually resumed production, resulting in an increase in demand for waste paper. The centralized release of supply from pre holiday packaging stations has resulted in a lower inventory of waste paper. In the state of weak supply and strong demand after the holiday, paper mills continue to raise the purchase price of waste paper to increase the amount of waste paper received.

On the supply side: Due to the shutdown and maintenance of many paper mills during the National Day holiday, the production and supply of corrugated paper are relatively low, and the inventory of paper mills is showing a decreasing trend, resulting in less market supply pressure. In addition, on the first working day after the holiday, the price increase plan was implemented, and small and medium-sized paper enterprises in many regions followed suit.

On the demand side: Although downstream demand has weakened after the National Day holiday, it is still in the stage of moderate inventory preparation for downstream secondary factories due to factors such as raw material cost pressure and machine shutdown and maintenance arrangements in some areas of paper enterprises. Therefore, the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable. Recently, leading paper mills have successively issued follow-up price increase letters, which has continuously raised the atmosphere of price increases in paper mills.

The paper analyst from SunSirs believes that the current inventory level of corrugated paper is not high, and the market supply pressure is not significant. With the continuous increase in price trends, the downstream may slow down their intention to purchase at high prices, and the release of market demand may be insufficient. However, the supply of cost waste paper remains tight and prices remain high, which is favorable for the upward movement of raw paper. It is expected that the price of corrugated paper may continue to rise in the short term.

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