SunSirs: In Early October, the Price of DMF Was Stable with Small Fluctuations, with a Narrowly Weaker Trend

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs: as of October 16, the average price quoted by domestic high-quality DMF companies is 40,250 RMB/ton. In early October, the overall DMF price showed a weak and stable trend, the focus of negotiations was stable but weaker, and insufficient demand suppressed price increases. In the first half of the month, the overall DMF price fell by 0.5%.

Analysis review

Market: On October 16, the benchmark price of DMF on SunSirs is 4,020 RMB/ton, down 0.5% from 4,040 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. The delivered prices in Shandong and North China markets are concentrated between 3,770 and 3,850 RMB/ton. The focus of negotiations is stable but weaker, and insufficient demand suppresses price increases. The payment price for Hualu Hengsheng DMF contract customers is stable at 4,500 RMB/ton, but the spot price is lower (3,800 RMB/ton for the Dezhou factory and 3,850 RMB/ton for the Jingzhou factory). Currently, the overall DMF market is stable but weaker.

Supply and demand relationship: Downstream purchases are mainly based on rigid demand, inventory consumption is slow, and the number of new customers is limited. Currently, the overall DMF industry operating rate is less than 40%, the contradiction of oversupply continues, and some capacity expansion projects have been shelved.

In terms of cost: the approval process for domestic coal-to-methanol projects has become stricter, the coke oven gas route has been affected by steel production cuts, the unstable natural gas supply from Iran has led to delays in new production capacity, and green methanol has become a new demand highlight due to the International Maritime Organization's zero-emission policy. The restart of MTO units and the new production of some downstream companies have supported demand.

Market outlook

DMF analysts of SunSirs believe that the DMF market showed a stable but weak trend in early October, with prices falling slightly and the contradiction between supply and demand not being alleviated. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of changes in export demand and adjustments in industry production on prices.

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