The Brazilian National Supply Corporation (CONAB) released its first 2025/26 survey report on Tuesday, projecting Brazil's total grain production (including soybeans) to reach 354.7 million tons in 2025/2026, a 0.8% increase from 2024/2025. Soybean production is projected to reach 177.6 million tons in 2025/2026, a 3.6 percentage point increase from 171.5 million tons in 2024/2025.

Soybean planted area is projected to reach 49.074 million hectares, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%.

Soybean yield is projected to be 3,620 kilograms per hectare, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%.

Due to a projected decline in US exports, rising global import demand, and increased Brazilian soybean production, CONAB projects a significant increase in Brazilian soybean exports in 2025/2026, with Brazil once again becoming the world's leading soybean exporter, potentially reaching 112.116 million tons, up from 106.66 million tons in the previous year.

Domestic consumption is estimated at 63.34 million tons, up from 62.26 million tons in the previous year, primarily driven by increased crushing.

CONAB stated that an increase in mandatory biodiesel blending and increased plant protein purchases suggest that Brazil's soybean crush will reach 59.56 million tons in 2026.

CONAB projects soybean imports to shrink to 500,000 tons, down from 900,000 tons in 2024/2025.

Despite the export increase, soybean ending stocks are expected to reach 13.38 million tons, up from 10.7 million tons in 2024/2025.

CONAB's initial forecast for Brazil's soybean meal production in 2025/2026 is 45.93 million tons, up from 45.2 million tons in the previous year. Consumption is projected at 20 million tons, up from 19.5 million tons in the previous year. Exports are estimated at 24.8 million tons, up from 23.6 million tons in the previous year. Stocks are estimated at 6.6 million tons, up from 5.47 million tons in the previous year.

CONAB's initial forecast for Brazil's soybean oil production in 2025/2026 is 11.94 million tons, up from 11.75 million tons in the previous year. Domestic consumption is estimated at 10.6 million tons, up from 10.5 million tons in the previous year. Exports are estimated at 1.4 million tons, unchanged from the previous year. Stocks are estimated at 359,000 tons, down from 365,000 tons in the previous year.

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