Macroeconomics

1. [PPI] National Bureau of Statistics: In September 2025, the national producer price index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month and remained unchanged month-on-month. The producer purchase price index (PPI) fell by 3.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%. On average from January to September, the PPI fell by 2.8% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 3.2%.

2. [CPI] National Bureau of Statistics: In September 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year and rose by 0.1% month-on-month. On average from January to September, the CPI fell by 0.1% year-on-year.

3. [Automobiles] The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released data showing that in September, automobile production and sales reached 3.276 million and 3.226 million units, respectively, representing month-on-month increases of 16.4% and 12.9%, and year-on-year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%, respectively. For the first time in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million units during the same period, with monthly year-on-year growth rates remaining above 10% for five consecutive months.

In September, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%, respectively. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 49.7% of total new vehicle sales. From January to September, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 11.243 million and 11.228 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 35.2% and 34.9%, respectively. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 46.1% of total new vehicle sales.

4. [Federal Reserve] Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that officials may stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months, acknowledging "some signs" of tightening in money markets. Powell said the outlook for inflation and employment appears to have changed little since the September FOMC monetary policy meeting, but he emphasized growing signs of slack in the labor market. Powell hinted that even though the government shutdown has severely weakened the Fed's grasp of the economic situation, it is still expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points later this month.

5. [Federal Reserve] Fed Governor Bowman said he continues to expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year.

6. [European Central Bank] ECB President Christine Lagarde: We will never say the ECB is done cutting interest rates. Lagarde recently stated that we cannot declare the rate-cutting cycle over yet and are prepared for any eventuality, as even in the current favorable situation, the situation could still change.

7. [IMF Economic Forecast] The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that global overall inflation will fall from 5.8% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025, and further to 3.7% in 2026. Global economic growth is expected to be 3.2% this year, 0.2 percentage points higher than the July forecast, and 3.1% in 2026, the same as the previous forecast.

Building Materials

1. [Glass] On October 14th, Kairong Line 1 in Kaili (designed capacity: 600 tons/day) converted production from European gray glass to white glass, and the production has begun.

2. [Wastepaper] On October 14th, Jingxing Paper Industry in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province, raised its waste paper purchase price by 20 RMB/ton. After the adjustment, the ex-factory price without invoice is 1,770 RMB/ton.

3. [Wood Pulp] As of October 13th, weekly pulp inventories at Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Luojing Port, Ningbo Port, Guangzhou, and Gaolan Port were 2.6841 million tons, an increase of 65,600 tons from pre-holiday levels, a 2.51% month-on-month increase.

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