After the National Day holiday, the acrylic acid market did not show signs of weakness, but instead experienced a period of strong performance with both volume and price increases. The core market characteristic of "fewer low prices on the market" was not only a phenomenon but also a concentrated reflection of the subtle supply and demand structure.

Market status: strong start, upward shift of focus

As of October 10, 2025, the domestic acrylic acid market had had a strong start. The benchmark price of acrylic acid on SunSirs was 6,983.33 RMB/ton, a 4.23% increase from 6,700 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. This increase was the result of a combination of supply, cost, and market sentiment.

Supply Side:

Operation Rates Actively Reduced: Data shows that on October 9th, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylic acid industry fell to 76.44%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points month-over-month. This was not accidental. Some factories reduced production or shut down for maintenance before the holiday due to inventory and cost concerns, resulting in a significant tightening of spot supply after the holiday.

Healthy Inventory Structure: Before the holiday, downstream companies and traders were cautious in stocking up, resulting in low social inventories. After the holiday, facing the tightening supply situation, inventory pressures at channels and factories were generally low, providing a solid foundation for sellers to maintain prices.

Cost side:

As of October 10th, the benchmark price of propylene on SunSirs was 6,588.25 RMB/ton, up 0.69% from 6,543.25 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. This remained high, significantly strengthening producers' resolve to maintain prices. They were no longer willing to engage in price wars and were instead reducing or eliminating low-price offers to unify market prices. This was the fundamental reason for the decline in low prices on the market.

Demand Side:

Rigid demand for restocking supported the market: Downstream industries (such as SAP, resins, and emulsions) hadn't seen explosive growth, but their rigid demand remained stable. There will be a wave of necessary restocking after the holiday, and this "rigid demand" was sufficient to absorb the current tight spot supply.

Shifting Market Sentiment: Clear signals of tightening supply and cost support reached the market, shifting the mindset of both buyers and sellers. Sellers shifted from aggressive selling to a reluctance to sell and support prices, while buyers, fearing further price increases or a loss of low-priced supply, shifted from a wait-and-see approach to lowering prices to accepting goods on demand. This shift in mindset further accelerated the clearance of low-priced supply and pushed the overall transaction center of gravity upward.

Summarize:

The resilient performance of the acrylic acid market was a temporary victory amidst weak realities and strong cost/supply expectations. It primarily reflected the supportive effect of supply contraction on prices amidst razor-thin profit margins. Traders should closely monitor upstream propylene price trends, major plant start-up plans, and substantive downstream order status, as these will be key signals for determining the market's next direction.

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