Price trend
According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the domestic MDI market saw a weak decline in September. From September 1st to 29th, the domestic MDI market price fell from 15,250 RMB/ton to 14,833 RMB/ton, a monthly drop of 2.73% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.97%.
In early September, factories operated stably, the market was replenished quickly, middlemen were unable to sell goods smoothly, market inventory pressure increased, and the price of MDI was under downward pressure.
In mid-to-late September, middlemen pushed up prices at low prices, leading to an increase in market inquiries, but weak transaction volume. The downstream market was not prosperous during the peak season, and the golden September market did not improve significantly. Under weak fundamentals, the MDI market continued to weaken after a slight increase, and the market remained deadlocked until the end of the month.
Analysis review
On the supply side, Tosoh Ruian's 80,000 ton/year MDI unit restarted on August 26 and returned to normal operation. The remaining units were operating smoothly.
On the cost side, the raw material benzene market experienced a volatile decline in September. Affected by both supply and demand and macroeconomic factors, the average price of benzene was 5,975 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 5,900 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 1.23%. The aniline market saw a step-by-step increase in September. The price of aniline was 7,550 RMB/ton on September 1st and 7,750 RMB/ton on September 29th, a 2.65% increase over the previous period and a 22.98% decrease compared to the same period last year.
On the demand side, the downstream peak season was not prosperous, and the September market ended flatly. With strong supply and weak demand, the MDI market is prone to fall but difficult to rise.
Market outlook
As major manufacturers begin maintenance in October, supply is expected to decrease. Demand is expected to increase only slightly, and the MDI market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term..
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