Price trend

Looking back at mid-to-early September, most parts of the country continued to experience high temperatures, with typhoons and rainstorms in parts of the south. There was little change on both the supply and demand sides, and the rebar futures market fluctuated, while spot prices fell and then consolidated. In mid-to-late September, terminal demand recovered, "anti-involution" news resurfaced, and appropriate stocking was made before the festival, and spot prices fluctuated and rose. According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the price of standard mild steel plate (material: Q235B; specification: 20) was 3,382 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1st) and 3,392 RMB/ton at the end of the month (September 26th), a 0.30% increase from the beginning of the month.

Influencing Factors

Cost side

As of September 26th, the ex-factory price of standard carbon billet in Tangshan was 3,030 RMB/ton, down 20 RMB/ton from the same period last month. As October approaching, blast furnace operating rates remained high, and some coking plants had initiated their first round of price increases. Absent anti-involution production restrictions, steel production costs are likely to remain stable with a slight upward trend in October.

Inventory

From the perspective of steel mill inventory, according to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid-September 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.29 million tons, a decrease of 530,000 tons from the previous ten days, a decrease of 3.4%; an increase of 2.92 million tons from the beginning of the year, an increase of 23.6%; a decrease of 380,000 tons from the same ten days of the previous month, a decrease of 2.4%; a decrease of 360,000 tons from the same ten days last year, a decrease of 2.3%; and a decrease of 470,000 tons from the same ten days of the previous year, a decrease of 3.0%.

Import and export

Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that China exported 9.51 million tons of steel in August 2025, a decrease of 326,000 tons from the previous month and a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%. From January to August, China exported 77.49 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%. In August, China imported 500,000 tons of steel, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a month-on-month increase of 10.6%. From January to August, China imported 3.977 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%..

Market outlook

Overall, as of September 26, long-process construction steel companies were operating near profitability, with rebar supply remaining relatively low. In October, the cool, sunny weather is favorable for construction, leading to a slight rebound in terminal demand and a decline in social resources. Meanwhile, production costs remain supportive. The domestic mild steel plate market is expected to be stronger in October.

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