Price trend

In September, the domestic fluorite market price rose. By the end of the month, the average domestic fluorite price was 3,497.5 RMB/ton, up 7.0% from the price of 3,268.75 RMB/ton at the end of August and up 3.63% year-on-year.

Analysis review

Supply side: Mine operation was sluggish, and fluorite supply was tight

The state of competition in the domestic fluorite industry remained. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises was relatively normal. Upstream mining was intensifying, and outdated mines would continue to be eliminated. For new mines, mineral surveys remained fraught with difficulties. Furthermore, with national authorities requiring rectification of fluorite mines, fluorite mining enterprises faced increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, making it more difficult to operate fluorite mines. Raw material shortages were also restricting fluorite enterprises' operations. The operating rate of some mines in the south was low, and supply was tight for fluorite enterprises within the market. Furthermore, strong bullish market expectations led to increased reluctance among holders to sell, making it difficult to find low-priced supplies. Fluorite mining and concentrators were holding back on shipments at high prices, causing the fluorite market to continue to rise. With temperatures dropping in northern China and the approaching winter shutdown period for mines and concentrators in the region, market supply had further tightened, leading to an upward trend in fluorite prices in September.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices rose, refrigerant prices rose

Domestic hydrofluoric acid prices rose in August, with the prevailing negotiated price across various regions ranging from 11,000 to 11,700 RMB/ton. Some downstream hydrofluoric acid plants remained shut down, leaving little change in spot hydrofluoric acid supply. Manufacturers primarily purchased on-demand, with overall hydrofluoric acid production capacity remaining at over 50%. Hydrogen fluoride companies maintained purchases on demand, leaving hydrofluoric acid companies operating at a loss. Major hydrofluoric acid manufacturers saw significant price increases in the new month, increasing their interest in fluorite purchases. This news sent fluorite prices sharply higher.

The downstream refrigerant market continued to rise. With policy support for the refrigerant industry, demand is expected to increase substantially. Fluorine chemical companies remained confident in maintaining refrigerant prices within quota control. While purchasing was slow at high prices, industry inventories were being transmitted in a healthy and orderly manner, with upstream product purchases primarily based on demand. Refrigerant prices had risen, and the fluorite market was also gaining momentum.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, had continuously developed demand in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, the application of fluorite had received certain support.

Market outlook

The supply of domestic fluorite ore was difficult to improve recently, and some mines stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite ore was a positive support for the fluorite market. The mentality of buying high and not buying low was obvious, and merchants holding goods were reluctant to sell. In addition, the supply of fluorite in the north will become tight in the future, and the downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant markets were running strong, but hydrofluoric acid companies mainly purchased on demand. Overall, the fluorite market price will continue to rise in the short term.

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