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SunSirs: Supply and Demand Pressure still Exists, China PVC Market Continues to Be Weak This Week
September 28 2025 10:22:59SunSirs(Selena)

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the PVC spot market fluctuated within the range this week (9.22-26), and the price performance was weak. As of Friday, the average P-value of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4,635 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.37% during the week.

This week, the PVC range fluctuated mainly, with most manufacturers maintaining stable quotes and some making slight adjustments within 50 RMB/ton. Specific reasons: Firstly, there is a lack of favorable fundamentals, with weak sustainability of crude oil and prices hovering at low levels; The futures market has shown relatively weak performance. Affected by this, PVC spot prices are unlikely to have a strong trend, and the overall trading range remains at last week's price level. In terms of supply and demand, the spot PVC market has shown a loose supply and demand situation, with most manufacturers' equipment operating stably. Supply is showing a slow growth trend, and supply pressure still exists. Social inventory is in the stage of accumulation. The more important aspect is that downstream demand is underperforming, with weak demand during peak seasons and sluggish export performance. Distributors' offers are generally weak, downstream inquiries and procurement enthusiasm are not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging price is low, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in East China is mostly around 4,710-4,780 RMB/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, as we enter September, the price of calcium carbide continues to rise. This week, calcium carbide has shown a trend of falling from a high level. The performance of the calcium carbide market is average, and its support for PVC prices in the later stage is limited. According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the decline this week is 1.59%.

According to PVC analysts from SunSirs, the current performance of the PVC spot market is average, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and weak situation next week. From three specific perspectives, on the supply side, it is expected that some facilities will resume work next week, and there is an expectation of increased production. On the demand side, there is no sign of improvement in the short-term production of downstream plastic manufacturing in China, and domestic demand is running at a low level; Exports are affected by India's anti-dumping measures, and the medium and long term also show a bearish trend. On the cost side, the price range of calcium carbide is running, and it cannot be ruled out that the price will continue to decline. There are negative expectations on the cost side. It is expected that PVC will continue its weak market next week against the backdrop of weak supply and demand and limited cost support.

 

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