The phosphoric acid market in China experienced a slight downturn during the week of September 22-26, 2025, with prices edging lower amid subdued trading activity.

According to SunSirs' commodity analysis system, the average reference price for 85% industrial-grade thermal phosphoric acid stood at 6,670 CNY/ton as of September 26, marking a 0.30% decline from 6,690 CNY/ton on September 22. This modest drop continues a pattern observed earlier in the month, where prices fell by 0.15% in the prior week (September 12-18), averaging around 6,700 CNY/ton.

Regionally, factory quotes varied but reflected the overall weakness: Hubei at 6,400-6,800 CNY/ton, Yunnan around 6,450 CNY/ton, and Sichuan between 6,300-6,700 CNY/ton. These figures align with broader September trends, where Hubei prices hovered at 6,500 CNY/ton and Sichuan at 6,350 CNY/ton earlier in the month. Internationally, China's phosphoric acid prices equated to approximately 836-962 USD/MT in Q1-Q3 2025, showing a year-on-year decline in some segments.

Market dynamics played a key role in this price softening. Domestic trading remained lackluster, with downstream inquiries diminishing as buyers adopted a low-price procurement strategy ahead of holidays. This led to inventory pressures on manufacturers, prompting minor price concessions to stimulate shipments. On the cost side, raw material yellow phosphorus prices declined, weakening overall support for phosphoric acid. Yellow phosphorus market transactions were tepid, with reduced downstream demand exacerbating the bias toward lower prices. This upstream pressure mirrors broader quarterly trends, where China's phosphoric acid market saw a 1.59% price drop in Q1 2025 due to similar cost factors. Regional variations persisted, with Southwest China (e.g., Sichuan and Yunnan) facing more pronounced declines owing to local supply surpluses, while Central regions like Hubei maintained relative stability.

Looking forward, SunSirs analysts expect the phosphoric acid market to remain biased toward weakness in the short term, with prices likely to consolidate in a downward trajectory. The ongoing decline in yellow phosphorus costs will continue to erode support, potentially pushing averages toward 6,500-6,600 CNY/ton in early October 2025, assuming no demand rebound. Mid-term projections for Q4 2025 suggest mild stabilization around 962-1,050 USD/MT (approximately 6,800-7,400 CNY/ton), influenced by seasonal fertilizer demand and potential raw material recoveries. However, environmental regulations and import dynamics—such as February 2025's 3,605 USD/ton average—could introduce volatility. A holiday-induced slowdown may further dampen activity, but any uptick in

downstream sectors like agriculture could provide limited uplift. Stakeholders should monitor yellow phosphorus trends and global phosphate rock supplies for adjustments.

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