StoneX, an international brokerage and analytics firm, predicts a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 2025/26 season. Global sugar production, which begins in October, is projected to reach 197.5 million tons, while consumption is expected to be 194.7 million tons, indicating a significant supply surplus.

Bumper harvests in Brazil, India, and Thailand will offset declining production in Europe. StoneX is optimistic about Brazil's new season, believing it will be a key driver of the global surplus. In Asia, Thailand's sugar production is projected to reach 11.4 million tons in the 2025/26 season, up from 10 million tons in the previous season. India's sugar production is projected to increase significantly from 26.1 million tons to 32.3 million tons. Analyst Marcello Di Bonifacio stated that India's weather has returned to normal since July, with rainfall in August 5% above average, significantly benefiting sugarcane growth.

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