Price trend

Hot rolled coil futures initially rose before declining last week. Early in the week, driven by rising futures prices, market sentiment improved, with low-priced resources steadily rising. However, market transactions were still dominated by demand, with limited speculative demand. Later in the week, the market weakened, and trading sentiment was subdued, with traders lowering spot prices to facilitate transactions. According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of September 19, the average domestic price of galvanized sheet and coil was 4,202.50 RMB/ton, a slight increase of 0.36% from the beginning of the week.

Analysis review

Fundamentals:

Halfway through September, overall shipments of galvanized sheet and coil had fallen short of expectations, tarnishing the "Golden September" sales season. During the week, capacity utilization for galvanized sheet and coil continued to rise, and social inventories continued to increase. According to the latest data from SunSirs, the overall operating rate for galvanized sheets and coils was 80.27% last week; capacity utilization was 63.63%, up 1.61% from the previous week; weekly production was 907,600 tons, up 22,900 tons from the previous week; and steel mill inventories were 480,000 tons, up 6,800 tons from the previous week. Social inventories of galvanized sheet coils reached 1.2663 million tons, a 31,300-ton increase from the previous week.

As for steel mills, Shougang released its October ordering policy last week, in which the ordering prices of galvanized and color coated sheets and coils remained the same as the previous period.

Industry Dynamics:

The latest data from the General Administration of Customs shows that China exported 2.89 million air conditioners in August 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4%. From January to August, cumulative exports reached 47.78 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%. In August, China exported 7.21 million refrigerators, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. From January to August, cumulative exports reached 54.86 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. In August, China exported 3.28 million washing machines, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%. From January to August, cumulative exports reached 23.03 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. In August, China exported 10.73 million LCD TVs, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. From January to August, cumulative exports reached 69 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%.

The latest data from the General Administration of Customs shows that China exported 760,000 vehicles in August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%. From January to August, cumulative exports reached 4.93 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. In August, China imported 50,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 40.6%. From January to August, cumulative imports reached 320,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 33.2%.

Market outlook

On the whole, the demand recovery in the "Golden September" peak season was lower than expected, and the market was still in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In addition, social inventory was also in the process of accumulating, and merchants were still cautious. SunSirs predicts that the price of galvanized sheet and coil may fluctuate narrowly in the short term.

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