Price trend

In the first half of the week, rebar futures saw a volatile rise, reflecting positive market sentiment, with steel market quotes rising slightly. In the second half of the week, bull-bear tussles played out, with a perceived slowdown in terminal demand leading to a slight loosening of quotes across various regions. According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the price of standard mild steel plate (material: Q235B; specification: 20) was 3,412 RMB/ton on September 19, up 0.59% from Monday.

Influencing factors

Billet Market:

Domestic billet prices rose last week before consolidating. As of September 19th, the tax-inclusive price of standard square billet in Tangshan was 3,040 RMB/ton, a 30 RMB/ton increase from the previous week. Inventory levels at major warehouses in Tangshan stood at 1.0064 million tons, down 80,100 tons from the previous week. From the weekend of the previous week to the beginning of last week, futures prices fluctuated and strengthened, boosting market sentiment. Billet trading remained healthy, and manufacturer quotes saw a slight increase. In the second half of the week, futures prices fluctuated and consolidated, with steelmakers cautiously purchasing and market trading slowing. Billet quotes remained weak and stable. Considering some steelmakers replenishing their inventories before the holiday, the domestic billet market is expected to fluctuate and strengthen next week.

Supply and Demand

Last week, the high temperatures in southern China dissipated, while the weather in northern China had become cooler. However, heavy rains in parts of southern and southwestern China dampened terminal demand, leading to poor spot trading and insufficient demand for peak-season quality.

Market outlook

Overall, high temperatures in southern China subsided somewhat last week, while temperatures in northern China hit a post-autumn low. However, localized typhoons and heavy rainstorms led to mediocre market trading. Some direct-shipping terminals were the first to restock, leading to a month-on-month increase in terminal demand and a slight decrease in rebar social inventories. Furthermore, blast furnace operating rates increased, reaching a four-month high. Despite the slow recovery in downstream demand, the market continued to face pressure from inventory accumulation. Given the peak season shortage, the approaching National Day holiday, the anticipated stocking of terminals, rumors of steel and coke production restrictions in Tangshan, and generally positive news, the domestic mild steel plate market is expected to improve next week, but the rise is limited.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.