Price trend

According to SunSirs price monitoring, stainless steel prices rose slightly last week. As of September 19, the average daily price of 304/2B stainless steel flat sheet (1.0*1219*2438mm (tolerance 0.91") was 12,174.29 RMB/ton, up 0.2% from the beginning of the week and down 2.49% year-on-year.

According to the price difference analysis tool of SunSirs, the prices of nickel and stainless steel are basically similar. The price of nickel has fallen after the recent rise, while the price of stainless steel has reacted slightly with a lag.

Analysis review

Last week, stainless steel inventories totaled 987,082 tons, down 2.5% from the previous week. Among them, cold rolled inventories increased while hot rolled inventories decreased.

Raw materials: Ore prices remained relatively firm, with nickel ore transactions increasing month-over-month. Loading efficiency in the Philippines remained acceptable. Overall nickel ore supply in Indonesia was relatively ample, but ore grades were declining. As of September 19, ferronickel prices were strong, hovering around 950 RMB/nickel (ex-factory, including tax). The market awaited further transactions. Continued profit losses in the stainless steel sector are expected to weigh on ferronickel prices. Strong chromium ore costs, coupled with reduced ferrochrome supply in August, had contributed to tight ferrochrome supply and rising prices.

Supply and Demand: National crude stainless steel production continued its upward trend in August, with major steel mills further increasing their production plans in September. Production of 300, 200, and 400 series stainless steel all saw increases. While some companies adjusted production temporarily due to maintenance and other factors, overall supply in the industry maintained steady growth, leading to accumulating market pressure. While demand is expected to improve due to seasonal factors and policy windows, peak season demand had yet to see a significant increase. Demand in traditional downstream sectors remained weak, and growth in emerging downstream sectors is generally expected to decline. Procurement was primarily focused on replenishing inventory for essential needs, while traders had greater bargaining power, yet volume remained limited. Companies maintained a cautious purchasing strategy, focusing primarily on essential needs, and there had been no large-scale centralized stockpiling.

Market outlook

As of September 19th, the stainless steel market presented a pattern of "increasing supply and stable demand," with the supply-demand imbalance remaining largely unresolved. Raw material prices were firm and costs supported, easing inventory pressures. However, downstream peak season demand was falling short of expectations, and fundamentals remained constrained by weak spot demand. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term.

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