Price trend

Last week (September 15-19), domestic liquid ammonia prices rebounded. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, prices in Shandong province saw a 1.60% weekly increase. This was primarily due to production cuts in some regions amidst stable downstream demand, easing supply pressures slightly. As of September 19, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong was between 2,200 and 2,350 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

On the supply side, supply remained generally stable last week. While some units underwent maintenance, production schedules in Shandong, Henan, and Northwest China decreased slightly, leading to a slight decline in supply. Some companies adjusted prices between midweek and the weekend, with major Shandong manufacturers generally adjusting prices by 100 RMB/ton. The market appeared to be generally balanced between supply and demand. Given the expected resumption of work at the affected ammonia plants in the near term, the supply may continue to increase in the later period.

On the demand side, downstream demand had seen little improvement, with compound fertilizer production rates remaining low. Urea shipments recently increased, leading to a slight price increase midweek. However, the market generally cooled after the price increase, and prices generally fell back to their early-week levels as the weekend approached, primarily due to insufficient demand. According to the commodity analysis system, urea prices fell 0.22% last week. Furthermore, domestic industrial demand was weak, while agricultural demand was primarily based on on-demand purchases and sporadic restocking. Demand had improved little, and a wait-and-see attitude remained dominant in the market.

Market outlook

Analysts of SunSirs believe that the slight increase in liquid ammonia last week was mainly due to the positive factors on the supply side. There is an expectation that the maintenance equipment will resume work in the near future, and the supply pressure may gradually increase in the later period. In addition, there are not many positive factors on the demand side, and the ammonia market may fall back.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.