Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity analysis system, caustic soda prices fall this week. The average market price was 878 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and 838 RMB/ton at the weekend, a 4.56% decrease and a 0.6% year-on-year increase.

On September 18th, the SunSirs Chemical Industry Index was 769 points, down 1 point from the previous day, down 45.07% from its intra-cyclical high of 1,400 points (October 23, 2021), and up 28.60% from its intra-cyclical low of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present.)

Analysis review

According to the SunSirs commodity analysis system, caustic soda prices fell over the weekend this week. In Shandong Province, the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda is around 770-890 RMB/ton. In Jiangsu Province, prices are stable, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda at around 890-990 RMB/ton. In Inner Mongolia, prices are consolidating, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda at around 2,700-2,800 RMB/ton (100% off). In Shandong Province, caustic soda prices are primarily declining during the week. Companies are experiencing low inventories, and inventory pressure is minimal. The recent continuous decline in alumina prices both domestically and internationally has led to a shrinking profit margin for domestic alumina companies. Consequently, downstream alumina suppliers are primarily purchasing on-demand, and non-aluminum suppliers are primarily purchasing on-demand.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the price of caustic soda has been running weak recently. The domestic downstream has been purchasing on demand recently, and the inventory pressure of caustic soda companies is not great. The supply and demand game is comprehensive and it is expected that caustic soda will maintain a consolidation trend in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

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