Price trend

Domestic fluorite prices continue to rise this week. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3,350 RMB/ton, up 0.94% from the beginning of the week at 3,318.75 RMB/ton and down 0.74% year-on-year.

Analysis review

Supply side: Mine operation is sluggish and fluorite supply is tight

The current state of competition in the domestic fluorite industry remains. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has increased. Upstream mining is in a tight spot, and outdated mines will continue to be eliminated. For new mines, mineral surveys remain difficult. Furthermore, with state departments requiring rectification of fluorite mines, fluorite mining enterprises face increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, making it more difficult to start operations. Raw material shortages are also restricting fluorite enterprises' operations. The operating rate of some mines in the south is low, and the supply of fluorite enterprises within the market is tight. Coupled with strong bullish market expectations, holders are more reluctant to sell, making it difficult to find low-priced supplies. Fluorite mining companies and concentrators are holding back on shipments at high prices, causing the fluorite market to continue to rise. As temperatures drop in northern China and the winter shutdown period for mines and concentrators in the region approaches, market supply is further tightening, leading to an upward trend in fluorite prices.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices are temporarily stable, and refrigerant prices are rising

Domestic hydrofluoric acid prices remains stable this week, with the mainstream negotiated price across various regions ranging from 10,800 to 11,500 RMB/ton. Some downstream hydrofluoric acid plants remain shut down, leaving little change in spot hydrofluoric acid supply. Manufacturers primarily purchase on-demand, with overall hydrofluoric acid production capacity remaining at over 50%. Hydrogen fluoride companies maintain rigid orders while hydrofluoric acid companies remain loss-making. The recent rise in hydrofluoric acid prices has increased fluorite purchasing activity, driving fluorite prices higher.

The downstream refrigerant market continues to rise. With policy support for the refrigerant industry, demand is expected to increase substantially. Fluorine chemical companies remain confident in maintaining refrigerant prices within quota control. While purchasing is slow at current high prices, industry inventories are being transmitted in a healthy and orderly manner, with upstream product purchases primarily based on demand. Refrigerant prices have risen, and the fluorite market is also gaining momentum.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, has continuously developed demand in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, the application of fluorite has received certain support.

Market outlook

The supply of domestic fluorite mines is difficult to improve recently, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. The mentality of buying high and not buying low is obvious, and merchants holding goods are reluctant to sell. In addition, the supply of fluorite in the north will become tight in the future, and the downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant markets are running strong, but hydrofluoric acid companies mainly purchase on demand. Overall, the fluorite market price will mainly rise in the short term.

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