Price trend

Last week (September 8-12), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong Province was weak, with prices continuing their downward trend, though the rate of decline slowed compared to the previous week. According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, prices in Shandong, the main producing region, fell by 1.02% last week.

Analysis review

The main reason was significant supply pressure, with market inventories remaining relatively high. With some maintenance facilities partially operational, the overall supply side appeared to be accommodative. Furthermore, some ammonia plants were increasing their ammonia conversion rates, and accumulated liquid ammonia stocks continued to put pressure on manufacturers. Manufacturer prices gradually loosened during the week, and as the weekend approached, prices at major Shandong manufacturers fell by around 100 RMB/ton. Distributors were primarily under-quoting shipments. Furthermore, downstream purchasing activity was low, agricultural demand was still in the off-season, and industrial demand remained rigid, resulting in an overall bearish outlook on the demand side. As of September 12, the mainstream quote in Shandong was between 2,200 and 2,350 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

Supply pressure is unlikely to ease in the near term. Combined with low utilization rates for compound fertilizers, a downstream sector of liquid ammonia, and limited recovery in phosphate fertilizer production, this further constrains liquid ammonia demand. Agricultural and industrial demand is primarily driven by rigid demand. Liquid ammonia prices are expected to remain weak and volatile.

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