Price trend

According to SunSirs price monitoring, stainless steel prices fell before rising last week. As of September 12, the average daily price of 304/2B stainless steel flat sheet (1.0*1219*2438mm (tolerance 0.91") was 12,135.71 RMB/ton, down 0.06% from the beginning of the week and 2.43% year-on-year.

According to the price difference analysis tool of SunSirs, the prices of nickel and stainless steel are basically similar, both of which fell first and then rose recently.

Analysis review

Last week, stainless steel inventories totaled 1.0125 million tons, down 3.9% from the previous week, with both cold rolled and hot rolled inventories falling.

Raw materials: Ore prices remained relatively firm, with nickel ore transactions increasing month-over-month. Loading efficiency in the Philippines remained acceptable. Overall nickel ore supply in Indonesia was relatively ample, but nickel ore grades were declining, leading to firm quotes for high-grade nickel ore. Ferronickel prices were strong, with the purchase price hovering around 950 RMB/nickel (ex-factory, including tax), as the market awaited further transactions. Continued profit losses in the stainless steel sector are expected to weigh on ferronickel prices. Strong chromium ore costs, coupled with a reduction in ferrochrome supply in August, contributed to tight ferrochrome supply and rising prices.

Supply and Demand: In August, stainless steel mills were projected to produce 3.2795 million tons of crude steel, a month-on-month increase of 68,700 tons (2.14%) and a year-on-year decrease of 2.37%. September's crude steel production schedule was estimated to be 3.4021 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.74% and a year-on-year increase of 3.57%. While demand is expected to improve due to seasonal factors and policy windows, peak season demand has yet to significantly increase. Demand in traditional downstream sectors is weak, and growth in emerging downstream sectors is expected to decline overall. Purchases are primarily driven by essential needs to replenish inventory, increasing traders' bargaining power but still hindering volume growth.

Future outlook:

Raw material prices remained firm, cost support was strengthening, and inventory pressure was easing. As of September 12, downstream peak season demand had fallen short of expectations, and fundamentals were still constrained by weak spot demand. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate in a range in the short term.

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