Price trend

Domestic fluorite prices continued to rise last week. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3,318.75 RMB/ton, up 1.14% from the beginning of the week at 3,281.25 RMB/ton and down 1.67% year-on-year.

Analysis review

Supply side: Mine operation was sluggish and fluorite supply was tight

The state of competition in the domestic fluorite industry remained. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises had increased. Upstream mining was in a tight spot, and outdated mines would continue to be eliminated. For new mines, mineral surveys remained difficult. Furthermore, with national departments requiring rectification of fluorite mines, fluorite mining enterprises faced increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, making it more difficult to start operations. Raw material shortages were also restricting fluorite enterprises' operations. The operating rate of some mines in the south was low, and the supply of fluorite enterprises within the market was tight. Coupled with strong market expectations, holders were reluctant to sell, making it difficult to find low-priced supplies. Fluorite mining companies and concentrators were holding back on shipments at high prices, causing the fluorite market to continue to rise. With temperatures dropping in northern China and the approaching winter shutdown period for mines and concentrators in the region, market supply was further tightening, and the fluorite market was performing better.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices were temporarily stable, and refrigerant prices were rising

Domestic hydrofluoric acid prices remained stable last week, with the mainstream negotiated price across various regions ranging from 10,800 to 11,500 RMB/ton. Some downstream hydrofluoric acid plants remained shut down, leaving little change in spot hydrofluoric acid supply. Manufacturers primarily purchased on-demand, with overall hydrofluoric acid production capacity remaining at over 50%. Hydrogen fluoride companies maintained purchaseds on demand, while hydrofluoric acid companies remained loss-making. The recent rise in hydrofluoric acid prices had increased fluorite purchasing activity, driving fluorite prices higher.

The downstream refrigerant market continued to rise. With policy support for the refrigerant industry, demand is expected to increase substantially. Fluorine chemical companies remained confident in maintaining refrigerant prices within quota control. While purchasing was slow at high prices, industry inventories were being transmitted in a healthy and orderly manner, with upstream product purchases primarily based on demand. Refrigerant prices had risen, and the fluorite market was also gaining momentum.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, has continuously developed demand in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, the application of fluorite has received certain support.

Market outlook

The supply of domestic fluorite ore was difficult to improve recently, and some mines had stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite ore was a positive support for the fluorite market, and the mentality of buying high and not buying low was obvious; in addition, the supply of fluorite in the north will become tight in the future, and the downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant markets are running strong, but hydrofluoric acid companies mainly purchase on demand. Overall, the fluorite market price will mainly rise in the short term.

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