According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, starting from September, negative factors hit and the soybean meal market weakened and fell. On September 1st, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,106 RMB/ton, and on September 10th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,056 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.61% in price.

Supply side: From January to August 2025, China imported a total of 73.312 million tons of soybeans, a year-on-year increase of 4%. Among them, China's soybean imports in August were 12.279 million tons, a slight increase of 5.2% compared to the previous month, reaching a new high. Starting from September, the import quantity of raw soybeans continues to increase, and supply pressure remains, leading to a weakening of the soybean meal market.

Inventory: From the soybean meal inventory statistics chart, it can be seen that since April, due to the impact of tariff policies, the number of imported soybeans arriving at the port has continued to decline, and soybean meal inventory has hit a new record, falling to single digits. In early May, the number of imported soybeans arriving at the port recovered, and soybean meal inventories gradually rebounded. In June, it continued to increase, and soybean meal inventory remained high in July, exceeding 1 million tons in August. At the beginning of September, soybean meal inventory reached around 1.1 million tons. As of September 5th, the soybean meal inventory for the week was 1.13 million tons, an increase of 5.6% compared to the previous week. The inventory pressure has doubled, and the soybean meal market is weak and declining.

Futures: As we enter September, the harvest season for US beans is gradually approaching, and there are still concerns about export demand. The weakening of US bean futures prices in the external market has suppressed the upward trend of domestic bean futures. The domestic soybean meal futures market is not good, and the overall spot market is weak and declining. As of September 10th, the main contract for soybean meal received 3066 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.39% from early September. The futures market is weak, and the soybean meal market continues to decline.

Demand: Starting from September, as temperatures drop, the operating rate of the terminal breeding industry gradually recovers, the rigid demand for soybean meal rebounds, and the market's enthusiasm for purchasing soybean meal increases. The trading volume of soybean meal market has rebounded, and the flow of goods has increased. Supported by terminal demand, the decline in soybean meal market has slowed down.

The soybean meal analyst from SunSirs believes that in mid September, the quantity of imported soybeans may continue to increase, with high operating rates of soybean oil plants and improved terminal demand. The soybean meal market may experience weak fluctuations in the future.

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