Price trend

Looking back at August, the ferrous steel futures market saw fluctuations, while the steel market remained dominated by on-demand purchases, with end-users stocking up appropriately, leading to fluctuating steel prices. According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the price of standard mild steel plate (material: Q235B; specification: 20) was 3,422 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month (August 1st) and at the end of the month (August 29th), the price remained unchanged from the previous month.

Influencing Factors

Cost

As of August 29th, the ex-factory price of standard carbon billet in Tangshan was 3,020 RMB/ton, up 100 RMB/ton from the end of the previous month, reflecting a volatile upward trend. As September approached, a survey of 22 steel mills in Tangshan revealed that 45% plan maintenance but were awaiting further notice, 32% have confirmed their plans, and 23% had not yet commenced. The domestic billet market is expected to remain stable in September.

Inventory status

According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid-August 2025, the steel inventory of key enterprises was 15.67 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons from the previous ten days, a growth of 4.0%; an increase of 3.3 million tons from the beginning of the year, a growth of 26.7%; an increase of 10,000 tons from the same ten days of the previous month, a growth of 0.1%; a decrease of 780,000 tons from the same ten days last year, a decrease of 4.7%; and a decrease of 960,000 tons from the same ten days of the previous year, a decrease of 5.8%.

import and export

Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in July 2025, China imported 452,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 18,000 tons, or 3.8%, month-on-month. The average price was $1,806.0 per ton, up $94.9 per ton, or 2.2%, month-on-month. From January to July, cumulative steel imports reached 3.476 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 646,000 tons, or 15.7%. In July 2025, my country exported 9.836 million tons of steel, an increase of 158,000 tons, or 1.6%, month-on-month. The average price was $702.2 per ton, up $15.1 per ton, or 2.2%, month-on-month. From January to July, cumulative steel exports reached 67.983 million tons, an increase of 6.960 million tons, or 11.4%, year-on-year. The data suggests that increasing steel exports indicate continued overseas demand.

Market outlook

The "Golden September and Silver October" is coming, and the sluggish demand may improve; however, the current macroeconomic data is weak, high-priced coal and mineral prices are adjusting weakly, and the support of raw material costs has weakened. There are all negative factors. Taking all factors into consideration, it is expected that the domestic mild steel plate market in September may operate weakly and steadily.

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