Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, domestic ethanol prices fell to 5,575 RMB/ton from August 15 to 22, a 1.33% decrease over the period, a 2.41% month-over-month drop, and a 6.62% year-over-year decrease. Domestic ethanol market prices were consolidating, with factory quotes lowered and new orders limited, indicating factories were actively shipping.

Analysis review

On the cost side, corn spot prices remained weak, market demand had not yet improved, and deep-processing procurement in North China had not seen a significant improvement, providing little support for the market. Market focus was gradually shifting to new grains. Ethanol costs provided negative factors for the market.

On the supply side, edible ethanol production had seen little fluctuation. Heilongjiang Wanli Runda was operating normally, Hongzhan Bayan was operating with feedstock, and two lines were operating in Jixian. Other production lines were operating normally, with factories actively shipping and low market prices. The Zalantun plant in Inner Mongolia had resumed operations. The impact of ethanol supply was mixed.

On the demand side, sporadic purchases of liquor had begun, and export demand for some chemicals had improved. Consumer demand is expected to consolidate in a narrow range. Ethanol demand provided negative factors for the market.

Market outlook

Supply continued to increase, while demand had not seen a significant improvement. Ethanol analysts at SunSirs predict that the ethanol market will remain weaker in the short term.

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