Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, domestic ethanol prices fell to 5,575 RMB/ton from August 13 to 20, a 1.33% decrease over the period, a 2.19% drop month-over-month, and a 6.81% drop year-over-year. Domestic ethanol market prices were weak, and factories were actively shipping, leading to lower quotes.

Analysis review

On the cost side, corn prices were generally declining. Futures prices were falling, and market sentiment was shifting. Port traders were lowering their quotations by 20-30 RMB/ton, and port delivery speeds were generally slow. Downstream buyers were cautious, focusing primarily on depleting inventory. Ethanol costs also provided negative factors for the market.

On the supply side, edible ethanol production saw little fluctuation, with the Yushu plant shut down, the Xintianlong unit shut down, and the Fukang unit restarted. The impact from supply on ethanol  was mixed.

On the demand side, downstream liquor and chemical industries entered their traditional off-season, and export demand for some chemicals had improved, leading to a narrow range of consolidation on the consumer side. Ethanol demand provided negative factors for the market.

Market outlook

With continued supply growth, ethanol prices were facing pressure from the supply-demand game, with a fluctuating downward trend. SunSirs’ ethanol analysts predict that the ethanol market will be weaker in the short term.

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