Price trend

Last week (August 11-15), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong Province was sluggish, with prices continuing last week's previous week’s decline and deepening. According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, prices in Shandong, the main producing region, fell by 3.77% last week.

Analysis review

The main reason was increasing supply pressure and excessive market inventory. With some maintenance equipment operating, the supply side was easing. Furthermore, many manufacturers increased their ammonia conversion capacity, and accumulated liquid ammonia stocks continued to put pressure on manufacturers. Manufacturer prices gradually loosened from the beginning of the week to the middle of the week. As the weekend approached, prices at major Shandong manufacturers continued to fall, with the decline deepening, with some manufacturers experiencing single-day drops exceeding 100 RMB/ton. Distributors were mostly under-reporting shipments. Furthermore, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, agricultural demand was still in the off-season, and industrial demand remained rigid, resulting in an overall bearish outlook on the demand side. As of August 15th, the mainstream quote in Shandongwas between 2,300 and 2,450 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

Recently, the utilization rate of compound fertilizer production, a downstream product of liquid ammonia, has been low, and phosphate fertilizer production has also been slow, further limiting liquid ammonia demand. Agricultural and industrial demand was primarily driven by rigid demand. Future supply fluctuations are expected to be minimal, with manufacturers operating at varying intervals, and ammonia supply remaining generally balanced. Liquid ammonia is expected to remain weak and volatile.

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