According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic PVC market showed a fluctuating upward trend in July, and at the end of the month, the market stopped rising and fell back, with prices still at a high level. According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, PVC increased by 6.96% in July.

Basic trend: In the first half of the month, the PVC spot market showed a fluctuating trend, with prices mainly recovering moderately. But as we enter the second half of the month, the futures market has shown strong performance, with crude oil continuing to rise. Under the macroeconomic stimulus and the background of stable supply and demand in the PVC spot market, prices continue to rise and inventory continues to deplete. In the last week of the month, the PVC market returned to calm, with relatively stable supply and demand, and prices mainly falling from high levels.

In terms of inventory, there has been a significant increase in market transactions this month, and companies are rationalizing their inventory. This is mainly due to the increase in downstream market entry and procurement. However, the social inventory is still relatively large, mainly due to manufacturers maintaining a high operating rate, and there is still some supply pressure in the market in the future.

Cost side and demand: Since June, the price performance of the calcium carbide market has been sluggish. In July, the price of calcium carbide is still in a downward cycle, which to some extent limits the strengthening trend of PVC. According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, as of the 31st, the monthly decline of domestic calcium carbide was 3.36%. On the demand side, the increase in downstream operating rates is average. On the one hand, there is inventory pressure, and on the other hand, the resumption of work for hard plastics is slow, with downstream operating rates generally below 50%. In terms of exports, it exhibits strong rigidity. To some extent, it supports the demand for PVC.

The PVC analyst from SunSirs believes that fundamentally speaking, there will be little change in supply and demand in August, and both the supply and demand sides will have some improvement, but the high supply of materials will outweigh the increase in demand. On the one hand, the high operating rate of manufacturers will lead to increased production, which in turn will push up inventory. On the other hand, the operating rate of downstream PVC product manufacturers is still sluggish, and the inventory of enterprises is high. Market procurement remains mainly for essential needs, and exports will maintain a positive trend. Taking all factors into consideration, it is expected that PVC prices will maintain a strong trend.

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