Price trend

According to the SunSirs’ commodity market analysis system, the domestic butadiene market experienced a volatile trend in July 2025, with an overall slight increase. From July 1 to 30, the domestic butadiene market price rose from 9,000 RMB/ton to 9,300 RMB/ton, a 3.33% increase over the period.

Analysis review

Early in the month: The domestic butadiene market experienced a volatile decline, dragged down by insufficient demand. Major refineries lowered their ex-factory prices in the latter half of the cycle. On the supply side, the spot market has been relatively well supplied recently, with major producing areas actively exporting. This has led to some unsold lots and a slightly weaker market.

Mid-month: The domestic butadiene market saw a volatile upward trend this cycle. On the supply side, port inventories were low recently, leading to a slightly tight supply. With an increase in premium sales at major refineries, sentiment in the spot market strengthened, driving prices higher. On the demand side, downstream demand showed a strong appetite for restocking, providing some support for market sentiment. As of July 14, the free-collection price in East China was around 9,100 RMB/ton.

Later in the month: The domestic butadiene market saw a volatile upward trend this cycle. Port inventories in East China have recently remained relatively low, boosting market sentiment. Major domestic refineries generally traded at a premium during the cycle, further strengthening market sentiment and driving prices higher. Demand has been relatively stable recently, driven by strong demand for restocking. Favorable supply boosted the butadiene market, which saw a volatile upward trend. By the end of the month, affected by weak downstream demand, major refineries generally lowered their ex-factory prices, leading to a slight decline in butadiene market prices.

Cost side: As of the 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $66.71 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $70.04 per barrel. Crude oil prices have been volatile during this round of price adjustments. On the one hand, OPEC+ is likely to complete its planned 2.2 million barrels per day production increase by the end of September, and the news of a trade agreement between the US and Japan has caused a decline in the international oil market. On the other hand, market concerns about tariff negotiations between the US and Europe, the Middle East issue, and the unrest in Europe have continued to affect crude oil prices.

On the supply side: Sinopec's butadiene sales companies were listing prices at 9,400 RMB/ton as of the 30th. The domestic butadiene industry's overall operating rate has remained stable recently, and overall supply was relatively stable.

Fushun Petrochemical's 160,000 tons/year butadiene plant was operating normally, but with no supply for export, prices are suspended.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year butadiene plant was operating normally, with 336 tons exported at a base price of 9,300 RMB/ton.

Shenghong Refining and Chemical's 200,000 tons/year butadiene plant was operating normally, with a base price of 9,300 RMB/ton.

On the demand side, the butadiene rubber market saw a slight increase in July. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of July 29th, the price of butadiene rubber in East China was 12,210 RMB/ton, up 3.30% from 11,820 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, with the lowest point of the period being 8,600 RMB/ton. The price of raw material butadiene fluctuated upward, shifting the cost center of butadiene rubber upward. Butadiene rubber production runs fluctuated slightly, but supply pressure persisted. Downstream tire production runs increased slightly, primarily supporting demand for butadiene rubber. As of July 29th, the mainstream price of butadiene rubber in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangzi regions of East China was 12,000 to 12,350 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

Regarding the future market, crude oil prices have been volatile recently, providing limited guidance to the butadiene market. Macroeconomic factors were underperforming, providing insufficient support. On the supply side, with some plants recently planning to restart, the market anticipated a relatively loose supply, suggesting a weak supply outlook. On the demand side, demand in the downstream synthetic rubber market has been generally rigid, with no significant support from the demand side. Overall, under the influence of weak fundamentals, the butadiene market is expected to be volatile and weaker.

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