Price trend
According to the SunSirs’ commodity market analysis system, TDI prices in East China surged in July due to tightening supply. The average TDI price at the beginning of the month was 11,733 RMB/ton, reaching 15,333 RMB/ton on July 30th, a monthly increase of 30.68% and a year-on-year increase of 14.14%.
Analysis review
The TDI market saw strong growth in July. Major North China manufacturers set their July invoice price at 15,000 RMB/ton, a 1,000 RMB/ton increase. Suppliers were strongly willing to maintain prices and actively push for price increases. Market supply was tight, and traders were reluctant to sell at low prices, focusing on quick moves. Subsequently, on July 12th, Covestro's TDI production capacity in Germany was impacted by a force majeure event, impacting 300,000 tons. A surge in export orders, coupled with concentrated maintenance at domestic plants, tightened global TDI supply and sent prices soaring. High-end quotes rose to around 16,500 RMB/ton. As downstream demand surged, intermediaries became increasingly cautious, leading to range-bound fluctuations at the end of the month.
The recent operation status of TDI units at home and abroad was as follows:
|
Factory name |
Production capacity:10,000 tons |
Device dynamics |
|
Covestro in Germany |
30 |
Sudden fire, restart time is uncertain |
|
Xinjiang Wanhua |
20 |
Production will be suspended for about 35 days |
|
Fujian Wanhua |
36 |
It will be restarted on July 30th |
|
Hungary Wanhua |
35 |
The installation will be overhauled on July 19 for four weeks |
|
Gansu Yinguang |
15 |
Maintenance on July 27 for 10-15 days |
|
Yeosu, South Korea |
16 |
Device changes, limited supply |
Upstream toluene prices declined in July. From July 1st to 30th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 5,820 RMB/ton to 5,494 RMB/ton, a 5.59% decrease over the period. Weak toluene market fundamentals in July, with strong supply and weak demand, coupled with volatile and weak crude oil prices, made it difficult for prices to recover.
Future outlook:
TDI data analysts of SunSirs believe that downstream end users were clearly resisting high TDI prices, resulting in weak actual orders. Wanhua's 360,000 ton/year TDI plant in Fujian province resumed operations on the 30th, and with major manufacturers' month-end settlement prices imminent, the TDI market is expected to remain high in the short term, with market news closely monitored.
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