According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the center of gravity of the PTA market has moved up slightly recently. As of July 21, the average price of PTA in East China was 4,825 RMB/ton, up 1.89% from July 16.

The crude oil market price fluctuated and adjusted warmer. As of the 18th, the settlement price of the September contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US$66.05/barrel, and the settlement price of the September contract of Brent crude oil futures was US$69.28/barrel. The main positive factors for the rise are the continuation of the traditional peak season for fuel consumption in the United States, the market is concerned about the fragility of the geopolitical situation, and the United States still maintains its sanctions against some oil-producing countries.

The PTA market destocked from March to June, and the maintenance equipment resumed production in July, the supply margin increased, and the market lacked unplanned news guidance. In addition, the new 3.2 million tons of PTA production capacity in East China began trial operation, and the supply increased. At present, the operating rate of the PTA industry is around 80%. There has been little change in the supply side recently, maintaining the pattern of accumulated inventory, and the supply and demand structure has improved slightly. There is a lack of substantial positive external factors, and the market drive is slightly insufficient.

At the same time, the downstream polyester market has entered the off-season of demand, with an operating rate of around 86%, and there is an expectation of production cuts. With the continued weakening of demand, the market transaction center of gravity has shifted downward, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is insufficient to maintain rigid demand. Terminal textile companies have to reduce production to ease the pressure of capital turnover, coupled with the reduction of foreign trade orders, most of which are mainly digesting inventory.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the crude oil market has a narrow range of positive fluctuations, but the overall performance of PTA supply and demand is weak, which will suppress the upward trend of PTA prices.

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