Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the 1# tin ingot market in East China rose this month (June 1-6), with an average market price of 251,610 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 267,690 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 3.89%.

Analysis review

This month, tin prices had steadily risen in two stages.

On the supply side, Yunnan and other regions in China are the main suppliers of tin ore, and the overall supply of tin ore was showing a tightening trend as of June 30th. With the arrival of June, some smelting enterprises were considering implementing shutdown and maintenance plans or carrying out minor production reduction operations. Abroad, although production resumed at the end of April, the logistics review at the China Myanmar border continued to increase, and the processing time for mining permits had been further extended, which was likely to delay the actual supply of tin ore until July. In addition, since June 4th, the Thai government had explicitly banned Myanmar from transporting tin ore through the road, which will affect the import volume and further exacerbate the tight supply of raw materials for smelting.

On the consumer side, the order volume of most downstream enterprises had shown a trend of recovery, and their purchasing willingness had also increased accordingly. However, as tin prices gradually rose, the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices decreased, and some end enterprises only purchased for essential needs. At the end of the month, after the rush for photovoltaic installation subsided, the order volume of photovoltaic tin bars in East China significantly declined, and the operating rates of some manufacturers also decreased accordingly; In the field of the electronics industry, electronic terminals in southern China had entered a off-season, and tin prices continued to be high. Terminal customers had a strong wait-and-see attitude, and orders were only maintained at a level that met rigid demand; The demand for tinplate, chemical and other industries remained stable, without any unexpected growth trend.

Market outlook

Overall, the market showed a weak supply-demand situation, but the inventory level was relatively low, especially overseas inventory had dropped to an extremely low level. In addition, recent macroeconomic optimism had dominated, and these factors collectively support the continued strength of tin prices amidst volatility.

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