Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of caustic soda was running to be weaker last week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 877 RMB/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 857 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.28% and a year-on-year increase of 7.66%.

On June 19th, the SunSirs' Chemical Index was 787 points, unchanged from the previous day, down 43.79% from the highest point of 1,400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and up 31.61% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

Analysis review

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of caustic soda was running weakly last week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region was around 780-890 RMB/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region was stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali wass around 930-970 RMB/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region was stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali was around 2,800-2,900 RMB/ton (converted to 100%). During the week, the liquid alkali market in Shandong remained stable with small fluctuations, and there were no significant fluctuations in the supply side of the Shandong region. Alumina was mostly purchased on demand, and non aluminum deliveries were noticeably cautious. The main downstream purchasing prices were lowered, and there was no positive support for caustic soda prices.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that in recent times, the price of caustic soda has been weak, and downstream demand in China has been average, supporting the consolidation of caustic soda prices and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that caustic soda will maintain a consolidating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

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