The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on June 17th, and the zero selling price of refined oil has been raised again. The retail price of refined oil in 2025 has experienced four upward adjustments, five downward adjustments, and two stranded adjustments. During this cycle, the crude oil market has risen significantly, and the rate of change in crude oil has expanded positively. The retail price of refined oil in 2025 has encountered the "fifth" upward adjustment.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend has risen. As of the 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.77 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.23 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment, crude oil prices have risen significantly. On the one hand, the escalating tensions in the Middle East have led to a tight supply of crude oil and a significant rise in the international oil market; On the other hand, the trade negotiations between China and the United States have made good progress, and coupled with the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories, favorable factors have supported the international oil market, with the crude oil market mainly rising. As of the 17th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day is 5.81%, corresponding to an expected increase of 260 RMB/ton for domestic gasoline and 255 RMB/ton for diesel, equivalent to 89# 0.19 RMB, 92# 0.20 RMB, 95# 0.21 RMB, and 0# 0.22 RMB per liter. The zero selling price of refined oil products has been raised again in this round.

In terms of gasoline, the operating rate of local refineries has slightly decreased recently. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries is around 50%, and the operating rate of major refineries nationwide is around 80%. The supply of refined oil products from local refineries has also decreased. Recently, there has been an increase in residents' travel and other activities. Guided by this news, many businesses have stocked up appropriately. In addition, considering the low inventory level, the gasoline market has risen. However, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles still has a certain impact on gasoline demand.

In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has slightly decreased, while the demand side has increased. The terminal demand has also increased, and the favorable summer harvest will gradually start. The increase in agricultural oil consumption supports the demand for diesel. In addition, the pressure on diesel inventory is not high, and refineries are more active. Infrastructure and logistics are relatively normal, and the trend of the diesel market is rising.

Looking at the future, recent positive news supports the sustained strength of international oil prices in the short term, which brings certain cost support to the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, the operating rate of refineries has declined in the short term, resulting in a decrease in the supply of refined oil products. In addition, the demand for gasoline is still acceptable, leading to an increase in gasoline market prices; There is still support in terms of diesel demand, and diesel prices may continue to rise in the later period.

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