The domestic refined oil price adjustment window was opened at 24:00 on June 3. The retail price of refined oil has been slightly raised in this round. The retail price of refined oil in 2025 has experienced three increases, five decreases and two suspensions. The crude oil market is mainly volatile in this cycle, and the crude oil change rate remains positive. The retail price of refined oil in 2025 will be raised for the "fourth time".
Entering this round of pricing cycle, the international oil price market fluctuated and rose. As of June 2, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US$62.52 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US$64.63 per barrel. In this round of price adjustment cycle, crude oil prices fluctuated and rose. On the one hand, the United States has increased its oil restrictions on a certain country, and the international oil price trend has risen due to the impact of issues such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict; on the other hand, as the Sino-US tariff issue has eased, the crude oil market has fluctuated and risen. As of the 3rd, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the tenth working day was 0.86%, corresponding to an expected increase of 65 RMB/ton for domestic gasoline and 60 RMB/ton for diesel, equivalent to 0.05 RMB per liter for 89#, 0.05 RMB per liter for 92#, 0.05 RMB per liter for 95#, and 0.05 RMB per liter for 0#. This round of retail prices for refined oil products has been raised.
In terms of gasoline: the operating rate of local refineries has declined slightly recently, with an average operating rate of about 51% for local refineries in Shandong and about 80% for major refineries nationwide, and the supply of refined oil products from local refineries has decreased. During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, residents' travel and other activities increased. Guided by this news, merchants mostly prepared a proper amount of goods before the festival. In addition, considering the low inventory level, the gasoline market price has risen, but the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has brought a certain impact on gasoline demand. Overall, the increase in gasoline prices is limited.
Diesel: The supply side of the diesel market has declined slightly recently. In terms of demand, the rigid demand of the terminal has increased. The favorable summer harvest will also be launched one after another. The increase in agricultural oil consumption supports the rigid demand of diesel. In addition, the pressure on diesel inventory is not great, the enthusiasm of refineries is high, and the infrastructure and logistics are relatively normal. The diesel market trend is rising.
In the future market: Supported by recent good news, the international oil price will mainly rise in the short term, which will bring certain support to the domestic refined oil market. Domestically, the operating rate of refineries has declined in the short term, the supply of refined oil has decreased, and the demand for gasoline is still good. The gasoline market price is mainly fluctuating and rising; diesel demand is still supported, and diesel prices may continue to rise in the future.
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