According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the market trend of local refineries gasoline and diesel in Shandong diverged in May. As of the end of May, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 7586.83 RMB/ton, and the price fell by 2.14% in May; the domestic price of 0# diesel was 6695.67 RMB/ton, and the price trend rose by 2.68% in May.

Cost side: Crude oil prices fluctuated higher, and cost support still exists

In May, the crude oil market fell first and then rose. As of the 29th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US$60.94/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US$64.15/barrel.

The crude oil market fell sharply in early May, mainly because OPEC+ increased production beyond expectations. The news was bearish for international oil prices, and the crude oil market fell sharply. In the later period, as the United States increased its oil restrictions on a certain country and the Middle East issue became tense again, the Sino-US tariff issue eased, and the international oil price trend rose.

Overall, the international oil price fluctuated higher in May, crude oil support was strong, and the domestic gasoline and diesel prices were still acceptable.

Supply side: Shandong local refinery operation declined and refined oil supply decreased

In May, the main refinery operation rate did not change much, and the resource supply was relatively normal. The average operation of Shandong local refineries declined to about 51%, and the operation of Shandong local refineries was running at a medium-low level. The operation of domestic main refineries was relatively normal. Some refineries in Shandong had maintenance plans in June, which may drive the overall operation rate to further decline, the supply of refined oil from Shandong local refineries declined, and the diesel market trend rose.

Demand side: Different demand situations and differentiated market trends

In terms of gasoline, under the guidance of the news of the May Day holiday, most merchants had appropriate stocking before the holiday, but the rigid demand after the holiday was limited. In addition, considering the inventory level, the cooling of transactions suppressed oil prices. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles brought a certain impact on gasoline demand. Overall, the gasoline market fell slightly.

In terms of diesel, the rigid demand of terminals has increased, and the favorable summer harvest will also be launched one after another. The increase in agricultural oil consumption supports the rigid demand of diesel. In addition, the pressure on diesel inventory is not great, the enthusiasm of refineries is high, and the infrastructure and logistics are relatively normal. The diesel market trend is rising.

Market forecast: Supported by recent good news, international oil prices will mainly rise in the short term, which will bring certain support to the domestic refined oil market. Domestically, the operating rate of refineries has declined in the short term, the supply of refined oil has decreased, and the demand for gasoline is still good, and the gasoline market price is mainly volatile; diesel demand is still supported, and diesel prices may rise slightly in the later period.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.