According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic PTA spot market has been fluctuating upward since May. As of May 19, the average market price in East China was 4,993 RMB/ton, up 8.93% from the beginning of the month.
At the beginning of May, crude oil fell sharply under the negative impact of OPEC+'s decision to increase production in June, and Brent crude oil once fell to US$58/barrel. However, crude oil rebounded continuously due to the expectations of Sino-US tariff negotiations and geopolitical factors. As of May 16, the settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was US$61.97/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US$65.41/barrel.
The rise in crude oil has helped boost the rebound of PTA and laid a cost support. In addition, in terms of PTA's own supply, the second quarter is a concentrated maintenance period for PTA enterprises, and the current domestic operating rate is around 75%. Recently, Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million tons and Xinjiang Zhongtai's 1.2 million tons PTA units have restart plans, and overall production will increase.
Changes in domestic PTA devices in May
|
Manufacturing enterprises |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons/year) |
Device changes |
|
Hengli Petrochemical 1# |
220 |
Parking on May 13 |
|
Hengli Petrochemical 2# |
220 |
Parking on May 10 |
|
Hengli Huizhou 2# |
250 |
Restart on May 13 |
|
Jiatong Energy |
300 |
Restart on May 8 |
|
Honggang Petrochemical |
250 |
Parking on May 7 |
|
Taihua Xingye |
150 |
Parking on May 6 |
|
Fujian Baihong |
250 |
The loss was reduced by 50% on May 11, and the loss was fully increased on May 13 |
After the tariff risk was eased, the market was boosted by the favorable factors, and the raw material market boosted it. Some downstream manufacturers were worried about the future cost increase, so they concentrated on stocking raw materials, and the atmosphere of replenishment heated up. The production enthusiasm of terminal weaving manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased to 57% compared with the previous period. Domestic and foreign trade orders have increased locally, and the sales of some orders have warmed up.
Analysts from SunSirs believe that the PTA maintenance equipment is expected to restart, and the domestic supply has increased slightly. In addition, there are many external unstable factors. The sustainability of downstream purchasing enthusiasm remains to be observed. It is expected that PTA prices will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.
