Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic PTA spot market has shown a slight increase since May. As of May 9th, the average market price in East China was 4,750 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.63% from the beginning of the month. During the May Day holiday, international oil prices fell sharply, and the PTA market opened slightly lower after the holiday. Subsequently, international oil prices rebounded, and the cost performance remained firm. In addition, two sets of equipment were repaired one after another, and domestic supply decreased, which helped push PTA prices higher.

Analysis review

The international crude oil market saw a significant decline during the May Day holiday, mainly due to OPEC+ increasing production beyond expectations, which negatively impacted international oil prices. After May Day, with the increasing oil restrictions imposed by the United States on a certain country, as well as the impact of the Israeli Palestinian conflict and the intention of China and the United States to negotiate, international oil prices have risen. As of May 8th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $59.91 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $62.84 per barrel.

From a personal perspective, there has been an increase in PTA maintenance in May, with Honggang Petrochemical shutting down 2.5 million tons on May 7th and Taihua Xingye shutting down 1.5 million tons on May 6th; Hengli Petrochemical planned to shut down its 2 # 2.2 million ton PTA plant near May 10th. Jiatong Energy's 3 million ton restart on May 7th resulted in a decrease in the PTA industry's operating rate to around 72%, the lowest level of the year.

Downstream polyester production and sales continued to increase before the holiday, leading to a significant improvement in industry inventory. The polyester load remained at 90%, which was the highest level in the same period in the past five years. In addition, there were signs of easing in the trade dispute, with a rebound in commodity sentiment, an improvement in demand sentiment, and a slight issuance of terminal orders.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that OPEC+'s accelerated production increase and demand outlook were poor, and the pressure on the crude oil market still existed. In addition, some of its PTA maintenance facilities had restarted, resulting in a slight increase in domestic supply. However, there was an opportunity for the geopolitical situation to ease, and the macro trends both domestically and internationally were positive. The downstream polyester load had exceeded expectations, and there was an improvement in terminal orders to support sentiment. Therefore, in the short term, PTA prices mainly fluctuate to be stronger.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.