According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, after the May Day holiday, the prices of waste paper in Zhejiang region have remained stable, with only a slight decrease. On May 10th, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang Province was 1,478 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.14% compared to the average price of 1,480 RMB/ton on May 1st. The price of corrugated paper has slightly declined. On May 10th, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated base paper was 2,662 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.82% compared to the average price of 2,684 RMB/ton on May 1st.
By observing market changes, it can be seen that after the holiday, the prices of waste paper in Zhejiang region have remained stable with slight fluctuations, while prices in other regions of China have shown a mixed trend of ups and downs. The current price of waste paper is mainly affected by supply and demand, and in the past two years, the oversupply pattern of the waste paper market has become prominent, with demand becoming a more important influencing factor on prices. In addition, during the May Day holiday, some paper mills have plans to shut down for maintenance, with shutdowns lasting mostly within 10 days, resulting in a relatively sufficient inventory of waste yellow cardboard in the paper mills. As a result, paper mills often adjust their own prices as needed.
The price of corrugated base paper is weak and declining. Due to the mutual influence and high price correlation between waste paper and corrugated paper, both prices are affected by their own supply and demand and costs. On the supply side, due to some paper mills choosing to shut down for maintenance during the May Day holiday, production has shown a decreasing trend. Affected by the zero tariff policy on corrugated paper, the domestic import volume has increased. Corrugated paper increased by 8.17% year-on-year from January to March 2024, and the trend will continue to increase in the short term. In terms of demand, downstream markets have sufficient pre holiday replenishment, so post holiday market demand is weak, mainly focusing on digesting existing inventory and replenishing inventory at low prices as needed. Therefore, the discounted price of corrugated paper is beneficial for shipment.
The price of gray based whiteboard has declined slightly. On May 10th, the average market price of 250g gray based whiteboard was 3,782.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.73% compared to the average market price on May 1st. After the May Day holiday, the holiday effect has weakened, and downstream rigid replenishment demand has declined. The gray bottom whiteboard market has entered the traditional off-season of demand, coupled with the continuous weakening of raw material waste paper prices, making cost support relatively weak. Against the backdrop of seasonal weakening of downstream demand, the weight of downstream price pressure purchasing has increased, enhancing the downward pressure on whiteboard prices.
The paper analyst from SunSirs believes that the prices of waste paper and corrugated paper are basically linked. As the temperature rises and fast-moving consumer goods such as beverages enter the peak consumption season, the amount of waste paper recycling has increased. Therefore, the supply-demand contradiction in the waste paper market can continue. However, the fluctuation of waste paper prices still has an impact on the corrugated paper market, and it is expected that the short-term low prices of waste paper and corrugated paper will be the main consolidation.
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