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SunSirs: The Bearish Trend is Dominant, and The Technical Decline of Soybean Meal is Difficult to Change
April 11 2024 11:04:38SunSirs(Selena)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, since March 21st, the bearish sentiment has been suppressed, and the domestic soybean meal market has continuously bottomed out, with a continuous decline until April 10th, with a decline of nearly 9%. On March 21st, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,690 RMB/ton. On April 10th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,362 RMB/ton, a decrease of 8.89%.

The main reasons for the decline in the soybean meal market this round are: 1. Starting from the end of March, the number of imported soybeans to Hong Kong on the supply side increased, South American soybeans on the futures side were abundant, and bearish factors dominated. On the demand side, feed factories purchased cautiously, resulting in cold demand. Multiple bearish pressures have suppressed soybean meal prices, resulting in a drop of over 300 RMB/ton.

Let's take a look below. Can the soybean meal market break free from the downturn in mid to late April?

Supply side: According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, South American soybeans will be concentrated in port in mid to late April, with an average monthly soybean arrival volume of around 10 million tons from April to June. It is expected that domestic oil plants will extract approximately 7.5 million tons of soybeans in April, with an average of 7.1 million tons over the past three years. The quantity of imported soybeans has increased, the operating rate of soybean oil factories has increased, and the pressure on soybean meal supply has doubled. The market is mainly weak and downward.

Futures: Since April, the weak oscillation in the soybean meal market has been the main trend. As of April 10th, the main contract for soybean meal closed at 3,221 RMB/ton, a daily decrease of 24 RMB/ton. In the mid to late period, South American soybeans were fully listed, and American soybean planting began one after another. The external market was mostly bearish, and the soybean meal futures market continued to decline. The futures market is sluggish, and the spot soybean meal market is under pressure, with the main focus on continuing to hit the bottom

SunSirs agricultural product analysts believe that both from a fundamental and technical perspective, supply pressure remains, and soybean meal inventories will experience a seasonal rebound. South American soybeans will be listed one after another, with bearish futures leading the way. In the short term, the soybean meal market is likely to break through the 3,300 RMB mark and approach historical lows.


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